democrats won't soon forget the acquaintances they made in 2012 that propelled president obama to four more years, but what's in store for a second term, and what will the president be able to accomplish before leaving the white house? recent history shows some highs and lows for second term presidents. what can president obama learn from the mistakes and big breaks that shaped the country for the last 30 years? and a who's who to keep your eyes on for the coming year and years. will new names emerge as the leading voices of their parties, while old familiar ones still drive the early jockeying for the next presidential fight. happy holiday and new year. hello from washington. this is a special year-end decision of "the daily rundown" and also a preview. i'm chuck todd, and all this hour we're going to look at what lessons we got from 2012, how

power could shift in 2014, and who is taking the long hard look for the bid for 2016. maybe we'll even slip in something for 2015 just for kicks. how did president obama weighed down by a jobless rate higher than any incumbent seeking re-election since f.d.r. win 332 electoral votes, sweep eight of the nine battleground states, and even have his party pick up senate seats to get to 55? as the republican picks up the pieces and looks ahead to 2016, here are four lessons that 2016 hopefuls from both parties might want to keep in mind. lesson one, you don't define yourself, your opponent will do it for you. romney let the president's early attacks on his personal wealth and business background go largely unanswered. romney's campaign argued after a long, expensive primary they had to choose how to spend at the time what was limited funds and adds about what romney would do

as president tested better they claim that bio-spots or defenses of his personal record. in the end obama beat romney by ten points. on the economic values question that was this, which candidate is more in touch with people like you. 53% said romney's policies would favor the rich. just 10% said that about the president's policies. romney, the first republican nominee in the history of our nbc-wall street journal poll to go into his convention with this personal rating under water and in his campaign with a painful number. just 47% of votes viewing him positively. the obama campaign was also able to get more bang for the buck because they bought ads early. >> the obama campaign purchased it way ahead of time.

romney bought it the week of. lesson two, the republican brand needs a hard look. the gop's favorable rating has been under water for two years, since december 2010, and, in fact, if you take that out, it's been nearly five years. in our final poll, full poll before the election, just 36% of registered voters said they had a positive view of the republican party, 43% held a negative view. the democratic party's favorable rating was in positive territory, though just barely, at 42%-40%. more than 20 primary debates put harsh republican rhetoric on immigration on full display. the todd aiken, richard murdoch wing damaged women in the party. now they debate whether to moderate or modernize, it has to repair its image, particularly among key groups. that leads us to lesson three. demographics are destiny. romney won a higher percentage of the white vote than any candidate since ronald reagan in 1984. he beat obama by 20 points.

59-39 among white voters. by 14 points among white women. by five points among self-described independents. he won all these groups by more than george w. bush did in 2004, but he lost the election by a wider margin than john kerry. why? because the composition of the electorate changed. as the obama campaign predicted more than a year ago, the white portion in the electorate dropped from 74% in 2008 to 72% in 2012. the president carried nearly eight in ten non-white voters including an astounding 71% of latinos. 73% of asian voters and a whopping 93% of black voters. it remains a really question whether the democratic mom knee in 2016 right back able to hold the obama coalition together, which also includes young voters, but the republican party is right to be re-examining its relationship with minorities. finally, lesson four. don't ignore the data. the polls matter. more of them are right than wrong. though public polling in the swing states consistently showed

the president ahead, the romney campaign sincerely believed until election day that romney would win. why? romney's pollsters assumed the electral would be a little wider and a little older than it turned out to be. the enthusiasm numbers did favor them, but they didn't have enough voters. more than any cycle in recent memory, many republicans bought into an alternative polling universe where the vast majority of public polls were the product of a conspiracy created by some media pollster mastermind determined to depress republican voting. in 2016 much of the emphasis in both parties will be to match and improve on the obama campaign's data driven technological juggernaut. the same time one lesson was 2012, the republican bubble is don't ignore the data that is available to anyone with a computer. second, it's known as the second term curse. american president successfully wins re-election only to have rough rides thanks to

overreached and sometimes souring relations with congress, personnel problems, unforeseen external events and, of course, scandal. there's always an issue for second term presidents. in his first post-election news conference, the president himself acknowledged that his predecessors had their versions of second term struggles. >> i don't presume that because i won an election that everybody suddenly agrees with me on everything. i'm more than familiar with all the literature about presidential overreach in second terms. >> i wonder if you have drawn any lessons on why that's so. >> the things that derail a second term are basically three. one is.

>> sometimes the president thez he has more of a mandate than he does and tried to do too much in the absence of cooperation. and the third is sometimes a president essentially just runs out of steam. >> in a november of 1972 after two weeks of reflection at camp david president richard nixon told reporters my study of elections in this country is that second terms almost inevitably are downhill. yes, richard nixon said that in 1972. after a string of legislative successes in his first term and after narrowly winning a second term as president, president bush claimed a mandate. >> when you win, there is a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view, and that's what i intend to tell the congress. i earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now i intend to spend it. >> spend it, he did. just 16 months later bush made this stark admission to the press corps. >> just after the 2004 election, you seemed -- you have claimed

an enviable balance of political capital and a strong mandate. would you make that claim today? do you still have that? >> i would say i'm spending that capital on the war. >> not only did plummeting support for the iraq war erode bush's ability to drive his second term agenda, but he aels overreached with the social security privatization push. his efforts on immigration reform then collapsed under the weight of the other issues. the administration bungled the response for hurricane katrina and relations with congress soured to the point that when bush nominated harriet myers to the supreme court, republicans didn't even fall in line. many conservatives privately and publicly called her unqualified. after three weeks bush was forced to withdraw her nomination. in december of 2008 shortly before he left office bush's job approval rating had suj to a miserable 27%. congress had often been a thorn in the side of second term presidents. it's a real question whether president obama will be able to forge a closer working relationship with congress this time around. then, of course, there's the

second term scandal. clinton's sec term dominated basically ended after a year because the lewinsky scandal began. impeachment then followed that completely derailed any agenda he hoped to push in that second four years. >> i have to go back to work on my state of the union speech, and i worked on it until pretty late last night, but i want to say one thing to the american people. i want you to listen to me. i'm going to say this again. i did not have sexual relations with that woman, ms. lewinsky. >> though ronald reagan pushed through a tax overhaul in his second term, he also became embroiled in the iran-contra affair. >> a few months ago i told the american people i did not trade arms for hostages. my heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not. >> there is a bright side.

if lincoln hadn't had a second term, he wouldn't have won the civil war. reagan's place in history was smepted by the beginnings of the end of the cold war, and without a second term f.d.r. would be remembered as the president who didn't end the great depression. still, second terms, they don't last four years. they're shorter than that. how long will obama have? is he aware that his second term domestically only lasts about a year to 18 months? finally, political junkies know we don't have to wait until 2016 or even 2014 for our next fix. just next year we've got blockbuster races for governor in two big states, virginia and new jersey. in new jersey it's the clintons verse the tea party. as former democratic national committee chairman and clinton loyalist terry mccull uf takes on virginia's republican attorney general, he who put himself front and center in the multi-state chal toning the health care law, is, of course, a tea party favorite and a favorite of social conservatives, but money and the backing of the clirns didn't do

the trip for mccull off last time around. he lost badly in a three-way democratic primary the first time he tried tore governor. key question this time. which flawed candidate wins this race? or supposedly flawed candidate. mccullough is hoping to break this curse. the party that wins the presidency loses the state's gubernatorial election the next year. it's never waivered. 2001 after president bush was elected current democratic senator mark warner defeated a republican, mark early, state attorney general. 52% of the vote. in 2005 after bush's re-election, tim caine beat former attorney general terry kilgore. bob mcdonnell won by 17 points during the first year in office. in the off the air election with turnout expected to be about 40%, the electral is likely to be older, and more conservative than it was in november in virginia. will it be conservative enough to elect ken? we'll see. moving on to new jersey. by the way, speaking of the

terry mccullough campaign, if are you thinking about working on hillary's presidential campaign, apparently you're supposed to send your resume to him. i'm not fully joke about that. in new jersey where the governor's race is all about one man, chris christie, and 2016. he hopes to scare off any serious democratic competition while building a platform for future political success. both christie's run for a second term and his presidential ambitions will be shaped in how he manages hurricane sandy's recovery effort. will christie who familiesly declared now is not my time in the fall of 2011 make moves in 2013 towards a presidential bid? watch the garden state governor's race for clues. i can tell you one thing. people close to christie believe the biggest mistake mitt romney made in 2006 was not trying to seek a second term in massachusetts, trying to avoid that. they believed they are best shot at becoming president in 2016 is winning re-election in 2013. we have a gaggle of campaign verlts and political junkies joining us this hour. stephanie cutter, kevin madden

from the campaign trail of their respective campaigns. obama and romney. plus, chris elisa and perry bacon will all be here next. we made a clis, checked it twice, and now we're going beyond hillary and jeb. we'll have the daily rundown's politicians to watch in the new year. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" only on msnbc.

call it "the daily rundown's" dirty dozen. the people we'll be watching closely over the next 12 poz. some of them are already household names, and the rest we expect will be pretty soon. here's the list i threw out there on the democratic side. vice president biden, secretary of state hillary clinton, senator michael bennett, governor jerry brown, incoming senators elizabeth warren and angus king who is an inpent, but

will caucus with the democrats on the republican side. we have governor nicki hailey, congressman paul ryan, marco rubio, former governor jeb bush and soon to be former senator jim demint joining me now. our end of the year gaggle. msnbc contributor and managing editor of post politics.com chris, msnbc contribute and political etd tore for the greater.com harry bacon, steph cutter was on president obama's lee election campaign, and henry madden was an aid viesor for mitt romney's campaign. happy new year. we asked all of you to pick. i threw out my dozen, and all of you -- i asked you to pick two that you were going to -- again, we're not going to do the 2016 conversation now, but we'll do it in a few minutes. chris -- >> moving on. >> of my dozen, who were the two that you are thinking, 2013? >> i'm a little nerdy and focused on, you know, down ballot races. i did pick michael bennett, the

colorado senator, because he is going to be -- he is the new head of the democratic senatorial campaign committee, which means he is tasked with trying to, again, keep a democratic senate majority. going to be difficult. you have 20 democratic seats up. you only have ten republican seats up. >> he wants to be senate majority leader someday. that's why he is doing it. >> they asked him two years ago, and he said no. he said yes this time. >> why pence. >> he spent time in congress. he is now the governor of indiana. i think he is a guy who we underrate in terms of his influence. we've seen in places like ohio, florida, wisconsin, how governors, particularly republican governors, can have are real influence. pence is a conservative who is a believer, and i think he is going to push an agenda that will kind of sort of outline 2013. >> all right. perry, you picked two governors. >> jerry brown really important. first time ever since 1933 california's super majority, meaning two-thirds of the members of the house and the

senate are democrats. jerry brown and the democrats can do whatever they want to. we have basically one party deposit in the biggest state in the country, and i'm careus what does that mean. >> how does he use it? >> kind of the liberal panacea. >> then you went with a conservative potential rising star out in south carolina who is struggling. >> niki haley is struggling in her state. her approval rating is lower than president obama's in south carolina right now. she's this big national figure. the republicans are looking for diverse voices, and she is one of the most leading ones. i'm careus to see what she does going forward. >> stephanie, your picks were? one was predictable. one to me was unpredictable. >> well, i picked elizabeth warren who is my home state new senator. of course, she has senator kennedy's seat, so it's very important to me. i think she's probably the most high profile appreciate freshman senator. >> without a doubt. >> probably since hillary clinton, right? >> yes. i think you're right. i think she's coming in in the same way. keeping her head down. looking for people to work with. reach across the aisle.

moderating some of the things. >> is this a stepping stone for her? >> i don't know. i don't want to guess, but i do know that there are some great things that she can accomplish there. potentially, you knowing, it's rumored that she would be on the senate banking committee, her area of expertise. she's been a consumer watchdog. this will be interesting to watch. >> to watch her, and she's going to butt heads with democrats. that's what's going to be interesting on some of these things. then your other pick sh. >> paul ryan. >> yeah. >> you know, yol i don't feel as a democrat it's somebody i've been watch aing long time. i think he came out of this race with a good reputation. i think that, you know, he has a lot of opportunity this year. he is known as a reform ner the party. the republican party is doing a lot of introspection of what they need to do to address the changing demographics in this country, and he has an opportunity to really step up. >> how does he do it in the house, which is always a little more difficult. >> he is a leader in the house, and he is known as being idealogical. this is an opportunity for him to open it up a little bit. >> all right, kevin. you got the big two.

>> well, i think marco rubio is one of the people i picked because i think as to perry's point, people are looking for a new diverse voices inside the republican party, and i think whether he likes it or not, marco rubio is going to become a national figure in that regard, and he will be emblem attic of the republicans' abilities and their effort to reach out to newer audiences. many conservatives are going to use marco rubio as a vessel for what they believe is rebuilding the party over the next. >> his first test will be getting immigration over the -- how does he do it and make it happen? how does he navigate it and still stick? >> how does he go beyond it? how sde not get pigeon holed as the hispanic republican and, instead, become somebody who can become a national leader. >> hillary clinton, what does she do in 2013? >> hillary clinton is -- whether she likes it or not as well is, like, this clinton industrial news complex. everything she does sparks

speculation, sparks, you know, all of these incredible, you know, obsessing over whether it's not -- it's a positioning for this year or positioning for another year, a positioning against somebody. i think that's just something that's going to happen. a lot of people will be looking at whether she can inherit the obama success. >> joe biden whoshg the guy has to figure out how to naf gate the clinton industrial news conference. i like this. angus king, the independent, committee be ab independent? that's what i'm going to be watching in 2013. jeb bush, who may be the transitional leader of the republican party wlshgs he likes it or not, and then there's jim demint. do you buy ceo of the conservative movement? >> i think it's very hard for jim demint to go into -- i think it's in many ways sort of like this aol-time warner merger. it makes a lot of sense on paper. the question is will he be able to overcome some of the institutional challenges that

each have. jim deminute going outside of the senate into something that's out in the think tank world. we're going to have more of this. we'll have more from the gaggle coming up. plus, the six-year itch. it's a bed rom of conventional wisdom. is it just a made-up thing? second term president, supposedly struggling in his second midterm. we'll let you know whether we think it's real or simply a coincidence. the deep dive is next. first, a special trivia question. who was the first president and who was the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday? the answer and more is coming up on "the daily rundown." coming up. look what mommy is having.

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zirchlg as we get closer to the next midterm electrics, you'll likely hear more about the so-called six-year itch. it's a theory that the party controlling the white house

loses big in a two-term president's second midterm. today we're taking a deep dive into whether the six-year itch is real or simply a coincidence that just happened a few times. it's a look back at history, if you will. we'll show what you we're looking at. at the last five two-term presidents. truman, eisenhower, reagan, clinton, and bush. we're including truman because even though he wasn't elected in 1944, he took over after f.d.r. died just three months into his term in 1945. president nixon is out because he resigned before the second midterm shall abbinging. let's put up the numbers. in truman's second term, let's take a look here. as you can see, in that midterm of 1950 is democratic party lost 28 seats in the house. six in the senate. ike's second midterm in 1958 the gop got wiped out, losing 48 house seats. 13 senate seats. reagan, 1986. republicans lost five seats in the house, eight seats in the senate. not so bad. i'll tell you more about that in a minute. it did cost the republicans control of the senate m process.

president clinton, of course, is the big outliar here, if you'll recall. he didn't lose anything in that second midterm. winning five house seats for his party. staying even in the senate. eight years later in 2006 president bush got hammered. republicans lost 30 seats in the house, six in the senate, but, of course, more importantly, control of both houses were gone from the republicans. a couple of things to note here. the 1988 election under president clinton marked the only time a sitting two-term president saw any kind of gains in his second midterm in the modern era. two-term presidents typically have one really bad midterm and one not so bad. for instance are eisenhower awes party did much better in his midterm than his second. truman's party did the opposite. it was much worse in 1946 than it was in 1950. reagan split decision after losing big in the house and gaining a senate seat in 1982. republicans lost seven senate seats in 1986 and lost senate seats in 1986 and the control, but did better in the house.

let's take a look at our next one. the two most recent examples of midterms. bill clinton's democrats lost 54 house seats and eight senate seats in 1994 before turning the tables about those surprise wins in 1998. both parties said in the 1998 result was due in part, maybe in whole, to the public backlash against republicans who seem too focused on the lewinsky scandal rather than govrping. president bush saw the opposite. had a great first midterm. not so great second one. two republican midterms there. gaining ground in both chambers under bush in 2002. a 9/11 halo effect, if you will, before losing big in 2006. what's behind the truth of the theory of the six-year itch? it seems logical that the political pendulum would swing from one party to the other over the course of six years. there are exten waiting circumstances that make it hard to draw any sweeping conclusions. by the time his second midterm rolled around hae truman was into intervention in korea. a controversial effort that

republicans used against his party. eisenhower was saddled with the midterms of 1958. u.s. unemployment had spiked to nearly 7%. that was double what it had been when he was first elected six years earlier. during the 2006 midterm the u.s. was three years into the iraq war and facing heavy sectarian violence. a combination that put -- what are the lebs for president obama and the democrats? should they worry about a six-year itch? i say maybe not so much. here's why. because in 2010 the party lost 63 seats in the house, six seats in the senate. president obama famously called it a shellacking and it was. there's reason to think will he do better. he limits his losses like reagan did or even add seats in the house like clinton. president obama is almost guaranteed to do better in the house. very hard frankly to do worse than what he did in his first midterm. then democrats have this anecdote. basically hold on to the control of the senate. president can declare partial

victory for that. that was the importance of democrats adding two senate seats. sitting at 55. republicans had to win big winning six senate seats is big, and that's what they have to do to get control in 2014. the gaggle will be back right after the break. the good, the bad, and the ugly of the 2012 ad season. they made us laugh. some made us cringe. which ones made people go out and actually vote. you are watching a special edition of "the dell rundown" only on msnbc.

♪ o beautiful for spacious skies for amber waves of grain for purple mountains majesty above the fruited plain america, america, god shed his grace on thee and crown thy good ♪ >> our gaggle here was almost

unanimous many naming that ad as one of the most memorable and effective ads of the 2012 campaign. that's saying something. in a race where nearly $1 billion was spent on television advertising alone. just in the presidential race. it was tough to stand out. >> both of you picked that ad as the most effective and both of you on the democratic side -- you both picked the most effective ad on the republican side. here it is. >> he treated. you tried. it's okay to make a change. >> so i haut that was interesting. it's almost like you're respecting the other's work. ken, you picked the america the beautiful. >> i remember when that ad came out. it was previewed on a sunday morning. stephanie and i were both on "face the nation." i was actually -- first time i saw it while we were on air, and i remember while it's playing i was thinking that is a very good ad.

i mean, it's oftentimes if we use a candidate's words against him. i had never heard him using his singing against him. by the way, they used it again and again. sflo if you say the 2012 campaign, it is very likely you will get someone singing an off key version of "america the beautiful where i". >> the big problem we had and i think what the obama campaign tried to use to their advantage was that this is -- mitt romney is not somebody who you can identify with. with the heart of that ad was that nobody watching that ad has accounts in the caymens. it just seemed, you know, something with them that they could not identify with. it made it their point much easier. >> it was a negative ad with a light touch. in a way -- that is always the most effective negative ad. that little light touch. >> here he is singing about america the beautiful. then, you know, it forces you to turn and look at the tv and then on the tv you see just it scroll down caymen island investments, swiss bank account. it was the perfect -- if he

believes in america, why is he investing overseas? >> let's jump to the rnc ad, you thought that was the most effective attack ad on the president, and you were wondering where did it go? >> right. that was the argument that we were worried most about. if you look at the democrats consolidated. republicans consolidated. there's this small segment in the middle. many of whom who had voted for the president, but they weren't ready to say -- >> and who liked him. >> they hadn't turned away from him, but we didn't have their support. it was the perfect message to them. it's okay to make a change. he tried. you tried. let's move forward. >> why didn't you use that? >> i mean, it was something i think that buoyed the president, but the personal likability factor, but that people felt like this was something that if we were going to focus on the economy, it was something to go out there. i think that was a mistake, and stephanie has pointed out which is that we didn't do it in a broad and sustained away. we did it in precise hits here and there. >> to the president, i thought

the megtive ads were in bounds. where things weren't inbound was on the senate level. i have a best of what i thought were the -- some of the most negative ads of the cycle. here it is. >> carmona is not who he seems. he has issues with anger, with ethics, and with women. >> with a history of bar brawls, altercations, and road rage, a trail of unpaid debts and tax liens, one of the worst attendance records in congress this year. >> mitt romney made over $100 million by shutting down our plant, and devastated our lives. turns out that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> debbie spent so much american money, you borrow more and more from us. your economy get very weak. ours get very good. we take your jobs. thank you. >> perry, that was sort of the best of. the brutality -- the sort of -- there was a hackishness to the

negative ads. >> there was a hackishness. on the presidential ones the priority usa ads were at times very aggressive, very -- >> right on the line there. >> i thought they actually did a good job of playing a good message. they were the hardest possible mitt romney outsources things. if you look in ohio, i think those ads made a difference there, and they were useful. >> let's remember, though, on the negative front, that that connie mack ad that bill nelson thought he could lose. >> they just buried him. they didn't but it in there, but he had a bar fight with ron gamt. >> he was 22 at the time. >> right. >> you are an idiot college kid. >> i always say in campaigns we focus so much on the presidential, but you can only really hate those who you know extremely well, and it's like the pta board race is always really, you whan i mean? the lower down you get where you actually know more of the people, the presidential race sdsh m and barack obama know each other in the vaguest. >> i have seen people in

younkers, new york, that are ten times worse. >> i would say it's the hardest thing this year, and you were talking about it, is breaking through, and you were talking about your ad that broke through virally is big bird. >> yes. actually, without my money behind it. five million people. pooh big bird never aired on television. >> it did. it was part of what we called our rotation, but just even putting out there five million people went to our website to look at it. >> no offense no big bird. here's the most viral ad of 2012. >> together we can do this. we can take this country back. ♪ i am america ♪ one voice united we stand ♪ i am america >> there it is. >> it was a great ad. at the same time -- >> he had no desire whatsoever to be president. >> he had no path. it was kind of like well, this is totally fascinating if you

are not trying to be a serious presidential. >> he just wants to have fun. >> first of all, i'm very anti-staff staffer. i really think we have to -- i'm not going to be on any tv ads for any candidate. it's only good advice for other staffers. >> let's take it away. >> d.c. is, of course, favorite political parlor game will be 2016. we have an open seat for the presidency, and it's open season for us to talk about it. don't forget, check us out on our website, msnbc.com and always follow us on facebook, like us, whatever you want to us. we'll be right back. [ rosa ] i'm rosa and i quit smoking with chantix. when the doctor told me that i could smoke for the first week... i'm like...yeah, ok... little did i know that one week later i wasn't smoking. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation,

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>> when your insurance rates go down, then you'll both be at -- >> any time anyone makes a trip to iowa, people start speculate about what you are going to do in the future and all that. let me just be blunt. i am not now, nor will i ever be

a candidate for offensive coordinator of iowa. >> it's way too early to talk about 2016. i think i did mention that i have a warm regard for the people of iowa and new hampshire. >> plenty of party favorites. they're already flirting with the 2016 run. let's be honest. there's one potential dynasty do-over that dominates the early news in both parties. let's bring back the gaggle. i look at this and say it's bush, it's clinton, it's for all the marbles. it's the rematch. if we don't get jeb and hillary, what are we going to do with ourselves? >> i love the primaries. >> i love great generals more. come. this would be -- >> this would be -- had would be like that time when you were like what if hillary clinton ran for the senate and what if rudy giuliani ran against? >> i think it's the only ticket that's ever had close to it would be kennedy-nixon where you had the two bug stars. sfwoo two titanic figures of the party. you know, the thing i would say is i actually think it is not too far fetched to think that

could happen. i think if hillary clinton does run, i find it hard to believe that andrew cuomos and martin o'mall o'malley's of the world say in. jeb is the idealogical -- the guy who can mash the conservatives and the kind of establishment. he is the -- >> it's the purist versus the praying mattists. >> well, jeb is the guy that could breach the divide. let me ask you this, stephanie. it's not clear to me that clinton is the malheir to the obama coalition. is it to you? is she? >> i think that there is no natural heir. people want you to earn it. i think that there is no argument out there that she hasn't earned it. she has. i think that she has done remarkably well as secretary of state. so many ooushg issues.

this is the year of the woman. >> it is. it's going to happen. >> the two most popular figures we tested in our last msnbc-wall street journal poll. both were named bsh bill and hillary, they're favorability rating higher than the president's. >> she runs her -- that said, she's an overwhelming favorite. the heir, though, i think is i don't think the heir is joe biden if hillary clinton doesn't run. i actually think elizabeth warren, throwing an unusual maim, if she were to run in 2016, she would have a great chance to maybe even defeat someone if it was not hillary clinton. >> he is a sitting vice president. >> he is vice president of the wraits. >> he is a secret weapon. >> it's a weird thing. >> and he is very good on the -- people -- he gets charactered. this guy that makes a lot of mistakes. if you watch him on the stump, he is very good at connecting.

he has built into the obama organization, and that is how he has flourished. a lot of people within the media that really like him. to stephanie's point, you cannot sort of borrow or live off of what -- or be an heir to somebody else's organization. >> bush did it with reagan in 1988. he didn't hold. sfwl i'm talking about nowadays. would you have to manage your own organization, and i don't see any of this heirs or passing of the torches anymore. >> i agree with that. there is no heir. i do think that joe biden is formidable. he really was our secret weapon out there. >> eleven -- >> ohio, iowa, wisconsin. he lived in those states. >> i'm not betting on andy cuomo over joe biden, a sitting vice president. i know that the rest of this --

>> i would. i would definitely -- >> i'm just saying. >> that's the same argument we made for hillary clinton. well, she's going to have the money. she's got the establishment and all good people around her. andrew cuomo does not come into that race as formidable as hillary clinton looked in 2007. >> what about a republican? how do you prevent a republican primary picture that you guys had, which i think a lot of you folks and romney believe the -- >> look, i think the debates, actually, were -- became a bit of a side show there, and if you looked at the volatility of the electorate at the time and how the -- and how the numbers went up and down based on debate performances and the side show that they became, i think that was something that had a very big effect. i think the rmc can step in and take more of a management role many the process there and have an impact on an eventual nominee and have that nominee much more viably >> so, you and i -- a fairly

large field. jeb would shrink it a little bit. without jeb, boy, seven, eight serious people deep. >> unlike like the '12 field, where you had kind of like rick santorum is the last guy standing against mitt romney? >> herman cain? >> i should have went to vegas. herman cain? you have real people, paul ryan, the vp nominee, bobby jindal, a governor of a state, marco rubio, a senator. john thune, another senator -- you have real people. >> and let me throw a name that nobody has talked about here. of the four embattled republican governors of florida wisconsin, michigan and ohio, whoever survives will run for president. >> i think scott walker would love to run for president. >> let me add one more point, it's hard to see a 2016 republican ticket that doesn't have a woman or minority on it in some capacity. that's very important. >> i thought for sure there would be a woman on the ticket in the democratic party and there hasn't been one yet.

we asked who was the first president and the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday which messes up inauguration plans in washington, the answers are james monroe and ronald reagan. the first time the inauguration date fell on a second was monroe's second in 1821, and the most recent in 1985. president obama's second inaugural will fall on a sunday which means he will take an oath and we'll do it all for the public the next day. if you have a political trivia question for us, e-mail it to us. we'll be right back with predictions and plugs from our gaggle. apologies to mr. mclaughlin. [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool if we took the already great sentra apart and completely reimagined it with best-in-class combined mpg, not to mention more interior room than corolla and civic, and a technology suite with bluetooth, navigation, and other handy stuff? ♪ yeah. that would be cool. ♪ introducing the all-new

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let's bring back the gaggle for some final thoughts here. if i pose this question to you, kevin, a year from now in 2013, we will say 2013 was about what in washington?

>> well, i think a lot of it has do with the republican party will be trying to modernize their message. i think the two parties are now trying to energize their base and get things done in washington. looking at two big issues. the tax reform, general disagreement there. >> how it goes. >> where they agree on things like corporate rate, and also immigration reform. >> stephanie, let me put it a slightly different way. how long does president obama's second term last? second terms don't last four years sometimes domestically. >> they last four years, but there's a shelf life to what you can get done. >> yeah. >> people will start looking at the midterms quickly. >> this is his year. >> 2013 is an important year to get things done. tax reform, immigration reform. we have to finish implementing the health care law. a year from now people will be signing up for exchanges in states all over the country. >> perry? >> we don't know if barack obama is a liberal a moderate. we've been debating that for two, four years. >> you think we'll know?

>> i think we'll know. >> is he a pragmatist? >> is he a pragmatist? an ideologuisdeologuist. >> i'm going put you on the spot, mcauliffe, the big race in 2013. which will dominate the washington media market. terry mcauliffe? >> it's such a fascinating race, because it's kind of -- cucinelli is the national tea party hero in waiting, with alan west and michele bachmann. >> if he wins? >> if he wins, could see him in 2016. just saying. >> year of 2012, besides president obama's re-election, known as the year america got comfortable with gay marriage. that's it for this special edition of "the daily rundown." you can watch us at 9:00 a.m. on msnbc. happy holidays, happy new year. be safe from all of us at "the daily rundown."